Wolverhampton Wanderers have had a tough start to the 25-26 Premier League campaign. At the midway point of the season, Wolves sit bottom of the table with the lowest goals for, highest goals against, and without a single win.
As of matchweek 19, the Wanderers have been able to muster up just three points by way of three draws. Wolves are the only team in the Premier League yet to record a win so far this season.
If Wolves continue the same trajectory throughout the second half of the season, they will surely finish bottom in the 25-26 Premier League campaign and be relegated down to the Championship.
In this article, we take a closer look at Wolves’ 25-26 season, where they have struggled, and the momentous challenge that lies ahead if they are to fight to stay in the Premier League.
Wolves’ Goal Scoring Problems Explained by xG
For starters, Wolves’ xG (or expected goals) is 17.2x for the first half of the 25-26 Premier League season. As a reminder, xG is the expected number of goals that a club or player should score (in this case club).
To determine xG, each chance is assigned a probability that the attempt will result in a goal. Factors such as distance from goal, lead up play, body part used for the attempt (foot, head, etc.) are all taken into consideration when determining the xG. The higher the xG of a single chance, the more likely that the average player would score in the exact same scenario.
An xG of 0.7 means it is expected that 7 out of 10 players with the exact same opportunity would score that chance. For reference, a penalty kick is always 0.79 xG. When adding up all the individual xG probabilities, you can determine the expected number of goals that a player or club should have scored for a specific match or season.
Now back to Wolves, their xG is 17.2 compared to 11 goals for, meaning they have scored 6.2 goals less than expected (i.e. under performing in front of net). Wolves rank second last for xG, meaning there is one other club, Sunderland, that has produced a lower expected goals metric over the course of the season so far.
Sunderland’s xG rating is 16.3 after the first half of the 25-26 season, but despite this low ranking, they have found more success in front of goal than Wolves. Sunderland have managed 20 goals for so far, resulting in Sunderland scoring 3.7 more goals than expected (and are ranked seventh in the Premier League at the time of writing).
What is more alarming for Wolves however, is their xGA (expected goals against). Wolves’ xGA is 27.7 (ranks them 15th in the Premier League for xGA – not the worst) but they have conceded 40 goals against.
This means that opposition have scored 12.3 more goals against Wolves than expected by probability. On a per game basis, this works out to Wolves conceding an additional goal every 1.5 games, which adds up to a lot over the course of a season.
Goalkeeper Save Percentage and the Lack of Clean Sheets for Wolves
When looking further at Wolves’ poor defensive record 25-26 Premier League season, there are a few factors to highlight.
For starters, the Wanderers’ have the worst goalkeeper save percentage in the league at 57.1% (the only club sub 60%). Save percentage is calculated by the total saves divided by total shots on target.
The current save percentage for Wolves results in them conceding about 2.1-goals per 90-minutes played in the Premier League. Furthermore, Wolves are the only club to not record a single clean sheet in the first 19 matches of the 25-26 season.
In the graph below, you can see Wolves’ save percentage compared to Sunderland, who have the highest at 78.3% in the English Premier League so far. The league average is 66.4%, almost 10% greater than Wolves.
We recognize there are a lot of factors at play before the goalkeeper is called into action. However, if Wolves could increase their save percentage by a small margin, it would result them conceding a handful less goals over the remaining half of the season.
Are Wolves’ Defensive Metrics Actually Relegation-Level?
When looking at other defensive metrics for Wolves in the 25-26 campaign, they’re surprisingly better than their league position suggests.
Wolves have made 374 tackles after 19-matches this season, second most in the Premier League (Tottenham have 375). Of those tackles, 207 of them have resulted in Wolves winning possession back (fifth highest in the league).
However, despite the high number of tackles, they have the lowest tackle win percentage in the league at 55.3% (i.e. only winning possession back in 55% of all tackles). For reference, Newcastle United is the highest, winning possession back in 65.3% of all their 262 tackles.
Wolves have 217 blocks (sixth highest in the league) with 78 blocked shots and 139 blocked passes, eighth and tenth best in the league, respectively. They also have recorded 169 interceptions, which is fifth best in the league and made 586 clearances, eighth best in the league.
Essentially what we’re trying to show here is that when looking at their defensive statistics in isolation, their numbers aren’t representative of being the worst club in the Premier League.
Wolves’ Attack Is the Worst in the Premier League
However, when looking at Wolves’ attacking statistics, they consistently rank lower than most clubs. For starters, Wolves have averaged 45% possession per match in the Premier League at the mid-way point of the season. That ranks them sixth from the bottom in terms of possession.
As we have noted in previous articles, a club doesn’t require the highest possession to be successful (as is this case with Sunderland this season, 42% possession on average and lowest possession in the league, yet sitting in seventh at the time of writing this article). However, if a club is lacking in possession, they need to be more clinical with their chances, which Wolves have not been thus far.
Wolves rank sixth lowest for touches in the attacking third with 2,246 (Liverpool have the highest at 3,868) and fourth lowest for number of touches in their opponent’s penalty box with 368 (Arsenal have the highest at 623).
Furthermore, Wolves rank lowest for carries into the opponent’s penalty area with 42 (Manchester City have the highest at 169) as well as ranking the lowest for shot-creating actions with 296 (Manchester United have the highest with 528). To note, a shot-creating action is defined as the two offensive actions leading directly to a shot.
Wolves also rank the lowest in the Premier League for total number of shots at 165 (Manchester United lead with 302) and shots on target with 53 (United also lead with 100).
Finally, Wolves’ average shot distance from goal is 17.3-yards, which is the fifth furthest out of all Premier League teams. While, Wolves’ average goal has been scored from just 8.9-yards out (average Premier League goal this season has been scored from 12.1-yards).
While there are many ways that Wolves can improve their attack, one thing is clear is that they need to take more shots from closer distance.
Improving and increasing their carries into opponent’s penalty area is one way for Wolves to take shots from closer range. As outlined above, Wolves’ average shot distance is double that of the shots that actually result in goals.
Comparing Wolves’ Season to Southampton’s Record-Breaking Collapse
Maybe it is unfair to make comparisons at this stage, as there is still half a football season to be played. However, it is hard not to see Wolves’ record in the 25-26 campaign and draw comparisons to Southampton’s season last year in the 24-25 Premier League season.
Southampton finished the 24-25 Premier League campaign in last place, with only 12-points recorded. They had two wins, six draws and 30 losses. Throughout the 38-match season, Southampton had 26 goals for and conceded 86 goals against.
The 12-point season that Southampton had in 24-25 was the lowest recorded points tally in modern day Premier League history (since being rebranded from First Division to Premier League in the 1992-1993 season).
Below you can see the Southampton points tally last season compared to Wolves’ this season at the mid-way point of the season. After 19-matches, Southampton had six points in the 24-25 season, while Wolves have only managed three points in this 25-26 campaign.
While the hopes of remaining in the Premier League might have faded, you would think that Wolves still have a chance to gain enough points to surpasses Southampton’s record for lowest points tally in the modern-day era.
Additionally, the graph below shows Wolves’ current points tally after matchweek 19 compared to their total points tally in the English Premier League in the 24-25 season.
In the latter half of the season last year, Wolves went on a considerable run. They picked up 16 points from their first 19 matches in the 24-25 season (0.84 points per match) but that increased to 26 points in their second 19 matches (1.37 points per match).
So, Wolves definitely have shown previously they can perform better in the second half of the season. However, they definitely have a steep mountain to climb in the 25-26 campaign.
It should be noted that two large contributors in Wolves’ success in the second half of the season last year were Matheus Cunha and Jørgen Strand Larsen, who scored 15 and 14 goals each, respectively.
However, as you know, Cunha was transferred to Manchester Untied at the end of last season and Strand Larsen has only one goal in 17 Premier League appearances so far this season.
Final Verdict: Why Wolves Are Heading for Relegation
Well, that’s it for this article. In this post, we take a look a Wolverhampton Wanderers’ poor performance so far this 25-26 Premier League season.
After the first 19-matches played, Wolves sit last in the Premier League with only 3-points earned from three draws. They’re the only team who haven’t won a match or kept a clean sheet.
From the data presented above, it can be seen that Wolves’ goalkeeping and offence are two main areas of concern. For starters, Wolves have conceded over 12-more goals than expected. While all the blame can’t be directed to Wolves’ keepers, they do have the lowest save percentage in the Premier League.
Offensively, Wolves have the fewest number of shots and shots on target in the league. While that isn’t a complete deal breaker, if they keep letting in easy goals at the back, they will have to increase their number of shots and goal output to balance out the goal difference.
Lastly, we compared Wolves to Southampton’s 24-25 campaign, in which Southampton recorded the lowest ever points tally in the modern era English Premier League. If Wolves continue on their same trajectory, it is likely that they will not only get relegated but that they will beat this record. A record that Wolves surely won’t want their named attached to.
What are your thoughts on Wolves performance in the first half of the 25-26 Premier League season? While it seems almost for sure that they will be relegated, do you think they can muster up enough points to beat Southampton’s lowest total from last year?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.
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As always, thanks for taking the time to read these posts!
JC
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