After the first five matches of the 25-26 Premier League season, Aston Villa had managed just three points. That is nine less points than after the first five matches of the previous season. Those three points were as a result of three draws and two losses, scoring only one goal. After match week 5, Villa were sitting in 18th place in the Premier League and in the relegation zone.
Fast forward now to matchweek 20, Aston Villa sit third place in the Premier League with 42 points and 33 goals for. In this article, we take a look at the considerable run Unai Emry’s men have gone on in the last 15-matches. Keep reading below to see the key statistics that have led to Villa’s success.
Aston Villa’s Elite Finishing: Goals Minus Expected Goals (xG) Explained
A large contributor to Villa’s strong first half of the 25-26 Premier League season is their finishing ability. This is evident in their goals minus expected goals (xG) metric.
xG is a measure of whether a player should score their attempt. Essentially, a probability is assigned to each shot on whether that shot should result in a goal.
Several factors are taken into consideration when determining the xG, such as distance from goal, body party taking the shot (head, foot, etc.), and lead up play.
Then each individual xG rating can be summed up for a player or a match to see if they are scoring above or below the number of expected goals they should be.
In Villa’s case, after the first 20-matches in the Premier League season, they have an xG metric of 23.3. Meaning, they were expected to score 23.3 goals given the chances they created.
Aston Villa’s xG rating ranks them 12th in the league, which isn’t anything special (Man City with the highest at 37.0, Sunderland with the lowest at 16.7).
However, what makes it interesting is that Villa have scored 32 goals in actuality (33 total goals for but one was an own goal). Meaning they’ve scored almost 9-goals more than they were expected to.
Their actual G – xG rating after 20-matches in the Premier League is +8.7 and is the highest in the league. This metric is graphed below for the top five ranked clubs currently in the Premier League.
You can see Liverpool and Chelsea are negative, while Villa is far out performing Arsenal and City in this category. For reference, Crytal Palace has the lowest G – xG rating after the first 20-matches with -10.8 (scored 21 goals, expected to score 31.8 goals).
Villa’s average xG rating for the goals they’ve scored so far is 0.19. That means that for each shot Villa took that has resulted in a goal, there was only a 19% probability (xG) that it would result in a goal. Said differently, out of 10 identical shots, the xG rating would only expect those shots to result in 1.9 goals.
For reference, for all goals scored in the Premier League so far across every club, the average xG for each shot was 0.31. Again, this means Villa are scoring goals well above the Premier League expected goals average.
Additionally, out of Villa’s 13 wins, they have only won the match by one-goal on 10 different occasions. Without their above-average finishing, Villa very well could have had considerably more matches end in tie, which would have reduced their points total by a lot.
As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see if Villa can keep up this remarkable goal scoring record, or if luck has played more of a part than the data suggests.
Less Possession, Better Results: How Villa Changed Their Build-Up Play
When looking at Villa’s passing and possession statistics in the first five matches (remember, only 3 points earned, 0.6 points/match) to the last 15 matches (39 points earned, 2.6 points/match), there are some notable differences.
In the opening five matches, Villa’s average possession was 59.6%. Meaning they had possession of the ball for almost 60% of every match, on average. Possession in Villa’s last 15 matches has decreased to 50.1%. So on average, they have almost 10% less possession of the ball per match.
Unsurprisingly, this is evident in Aston Villa’s total number of touches per match. In the first five matches, they averaged 619 touches of the ball per match. In the last 15 matches, they averaged 570 touches per match.
What’s interesting however, is what area of the pitch these touches occurred.
Average touches of the ball per match in the midfield third and offensive third are considerably higher in the first five matches than in the last 15 matches. This is where the decrease in possession appears to come from, mostly in the midfield and attacking thirds. However, the same does not hold true for Villa’s defensive third.
In the first five matches, Villa had an average of 173 touches per match in their defensive third. In the last fifteen matches, Vill have had an average of 218 touches per match in their defensive third.
The defensive third is the only area of the pitch in which the average touches per match has increased in Villa’s strong run of form in the last 15-matches.
This can be seen visually in the graph below.
In fact, after match week 20, Aston Villa have the highest number of touches in the Premier League in their defensive penalty area with 1631 (next highest was Fulham with 1587).
This transition to more possession in Villa’s defensive third has seemed to work wonders for them.
Villa have reduced their possession in both the midfield and attacking third of the pitch and instead, they are confident enough on the ball to retain possession in their defensive third and build the play up.
Why Aston Villa Don’t Press High: Defensive Shape, Tackles, and Interceptions
If defensive statistics alone determined league position, then you would expect Villa to be a mid-table club. But thankfully for them, that’s not the case.
After 20-matches, Aston Villa have made 311 tackles (17th in the league) and of those tackles, have won the ball back 180 times (16th in the league). The number of tackles in the defensive and mid-field third rank Villa just below mid-table.
However, they rank tied with Newcastle for lowest (20th in the league) for the number of tackles made in the attacking third. This reiterates Villa’s sit-back style of play.
When they lose the ball in their attacking third, they don’t press the ball far up the pitch (at least not as much as other squads). Instead, they get their shape, tuck-in, and defend.
To put this in comparison, Vill have made 34 tackles in their attacking third of the pitch after 20-matches. Whereas Nottingham Forrest, a high-press team, have made 71 tackles in the attacking third of the pitch (more than double Villa).
Other metrics that stands out are Villa’s blocked pass and interception statistics. They have blocked 127 of their opponents passes (ranked 17th in the league) and have made 118 interceptions (ranked 20th in the league).
Both of those values reinforce Villa’s retreat and sit-back defensive style. It’s hard to block or intercept a pass when you aren’t pressing high and marking your opponent tightly.
For comparison to other clubs, Crystal Palace rank first in the league for number of blocked passes with 172 (35% more than Villa). In terms of interceptions, Chelsea have the most with 203 (72% more than Villa).
So, while Villa are blocking passes and making interceptions, they are doing it nowhere near as much as other clubs in the Premier League. This again, reinforces Villa’s defensive set-up.
The graph below provides a visual of Villa’s blocked passes and interceptions in comparison to Crystal Palace. To note, Palace are third highest in the league for interceptions with 183 (not as many as Chelsea but still much higher than Villa).
The last defensive metric to touch on is the number of clearances that Villa have made.
Given their high number of touches in their defensive third, you would expect Villa to have fewer clearances, i.e., they are confident enough in possession of the ball that they can play their way out of trouble, instead of hoofing it up the pitch.
And that’s exactly what the data shows.
Villa have made 456 clearances in the Premier League after the first 20-matches of the 25-26 season. That number of clearances ranks Villa as 19th in the league (or second fewest).
Only Chelseas rank less with 448. For perspective, Crystal Palace have the most clearances with 703, that’s 274 more clearances than Villa (or about 12.4 more clearances per match).
The Numbers That Don’t Fit the Mold: Fouls, Offsides, Crosses, and Throw-Ins
Now for some final miscellaneous facts that aren’t specific to any one area of the pitch.
Villa are the most fouled team in the Premier League. After the first 20 matches of the season, they have been fouled 281 times. Tottenham have been fouled the lease with 164.
John McGinn is the most fouled Aston Villa player. He’s drawn 36 fouls. To note, that ranks him fifth in the league for most fouled players (Grealish, Elliot Anderson, Guimarães, and Neco Williams have all drawn more fouls).
Aston Villa are also tied for having the fewest number of offsides after the first 20 matches. They’ve been offside only 22 times, just over once per match.
That’s a statistic that they share with Manchester City. For comparison, Liverpool have been offside 48 times over the same number of matches.
In terms of crosses, Villa have made 303 in Premier League so far this season. That is the second fewest number of crosses made by a single club. Newcastle have the most with 486 crosses.
And in terms of throw-ins, Villa have made the least with 302 so far in the league. Fulham have the most throw-ins with 409.
Aston Villa’s Premier League Position by Match Week (2025–26 Season)
Lastly, we provide the below visual that graphs Aston Villa’s league position for the first 20 match weeks of the 25-26 Premier League season. As you can see, it was a slow start to the season for Villa, picking up only three points in their first five matches.
However, since then, Villa have gone on to win 13 of their last 15 matches. The other two matches resulted in losses against Liverpool in November and Arsenal in December.
Aston Villa have firmly held the 3rd position in the Premier League for the last several number of match weeks. As the season continues to progress, it will be interesting to see if Villa can keep up their current form and push up further in the Premier League table.
Final Thoughts: Are Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders in 2025–26?
Well, that’s it for this article. In this post, we take a look at Aston Villa’s performances so far this 25-26 Premier League season.
After a miserable start in which they picked up only three points from their opening five matches, it was looking like Villa were in for a tough season. They were sitting in 18th place after match week five.
However, since then Aston Villa have shot up the Premier League table. After match week 20 they are sitting comfortably in third place.
Their strong run of form from match week six to 20 includes an eight-match winning streak from November 9th to December 27th with notable wins against Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United.
Villa’s strong scoring record has been a key contributor to their turnaround in form this season. As outlined above, their goals minus expected goals metric is the best in the Premier League. After match week 20 it sits at +8.7.
Several statistics point to the fact that Villa aren’t a high pressing team (interceptions and blocked passes metrics are amongst the lowest in the league). In fact, in their strong run of form in the last 15-matches, they’ve had considerably more touches in their defensive third of the pitch.
However, Villa are confident with the ball at their feet, in their own half. They build play slowly from the back and take their chances when presented.
As the 25-26 Premier League season continues, it will be interesting to see if Villa can continue this run of form, or if their strong conversion rate in front of net will slow down?
What are your thoughts on Aston Villa so far this 25-26 Premier League season? After match week 5 when they were in 18th place, did you ever imagine them to be in third place at the mid-way point of the season? Do you think they are title contenders?
Let us know in the comments, we’d love to hear your thoughts.
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As always, thanks for taking the time to read these posts!
JC
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Main photo by David Bayliss on Unsplash