Fans often shout “Shoot!” when a player finds space near the edge of the box — but how effective are long-range efforts in the Premier League? So far in the 2025/26 season, the average goal has been scored from just 11.9 yards out, while only 15 of 119 goals (excluding own goals) have come from beyond 18 yards. The numbers suggest that patience and positioning inside the box matter far more than speculative strikes from distance.
In this article, we break down shooting and scoring data from the first five matchweeks of the 2025/26 Premier League season (50 matches total). From overall shot outcomes to the timing of goals and expected goals (xG) highlights, the data paints a clear picture of how teams are finding — and missing — the back of the net.
Premier League Shot Outcomes After 5 Matches
After the first five matches of the English Premier League season there have been 1,126 attempts on goal.
Over two-thirds of those shots have either been off target or blocked. About 20.5% of all shots were saved, 10.57% of those shots resulted in goals (119 goals) and just over 1.4% of shots hit the woodwork. A visual of this data can be seen in the below pie chart.
When looking at the average distance for each of these shot outcomes, the average distance for both off target and saved shots was 16.4 yards. Blocked shots were on average 18.5 yards from goal and outside of the box, while as noted previously, so far goals have been from an average distance of 11.9 yards.
When we break the numbers down a bit further, there have been 397 shots from greater than 18-yards (outside the box) after the first 5 matches this Premier League season. Of those 397 shots, only 15 have resulted in goals (3.78% goal to shot ratio).
Furthermore, 143 of those shots weren’t even on target (36%), 164 were blocked (41.3%), 70 were saved (17.6%) while 5 hit the woodwork (1.25). The average xG for those shots greater than 18-yards was 0.0374 or 3.74%. This means that out of 100 shots, we would expect 3.74 goals (more on xG later).
The actual goal conversion is quite accurate to the xG model. However, the point we are making here is that 397 shots were taken when the probability of scoring was around 3.7%.
It is clear that the strike from distance does work once and a while, resulting in a goal for the highlight reel.
However, from a pure probability standpoint, it makes more sense to hold onto the ball and avoid the strike from distance (there is a strong chance the shot will be blocked or miss the target).
When Do Teams Create the Most Chances? Match Timing Trends
Next up, we took a look at the time in the match that shots or goals occurred. Again, this data includes all teams and matches from the first 5 match weeks.
So far, the most shots recorded in any one minute was the 90+3 minute of play in which there have been 25 shots across all matches. This makes sense as teams make their final push to score in an effort to save a point (tie the match) or win the match.
Other key peaks in terms of the number of shots recorded were at the 58th, 75th and 88th minutes in the match. The number of shots recorded at these times were 20, 19 and 20, respectively.
Furthermore, only 43.3% of all shots recorded were in the first half, meaning the majority of shots (56.7%) are often seen in the second half.
This is in part due to often longer stoppage time in the second half (more substitutions and attempts to waste time for teams in the lead).
This data is easier to understand in a visual format as seen in the graph below. The number of shots taper off around the 45+6 minute and 90+7 minute of play, as most matches don’t have that much stoppage time.
As the season continues, the number of shots will obviously increase but it is interesting to see the graph as a snapshot after the first five matches.
When completing the same analysis for goals, the key minute so far after 5 matches is the 37th minute, in which there have been 5 goals scored. This followed closely by four other instances in which there has been four goals scored in the same minute.
In the 34th, 57th, 61st and 88th minute, there have been four goals scored. These key areas are highlighted in the orange circles on the graph below.
If we compare the per minute goal data to the shot data discussed above, other than the 88th minute, more shots doesn’t necessarily mean more goals, when talking about these specific minutes in the match.
When looking specifically at stoppage time in both halves, there have been 15 of 119 goals scored in stoppage time. 11 of those have come in the second half stoppage, while only 4 were in the first half stoppage.
This statistic again, really underlines how hard teams are pushing to score in the final stages of a match.
Out of those 11 matches with a second half stoppage goal, 7 matches were decided based on that late goal. 3 matches the late goal saved a tie, while in 4 matches the late goal earned a win.
To note, twice so far this season Liverpool have scored goals in the second half stoppage time to win the match (Ngumoha’s 90+10 goal to beat Newcastle and Salah’s 90+5 penalty to beat Burnley).
Expected Goals (xG): Paquetá’s Wonder Strike and Haaland’s Big Miss
Next we take a look at some xG data or expected goals. As noted in previous articles, xG measures the probability that a shot will result in a goal.
The measurement takes many factors into account when determining the probability, such as the location of the shooter, events leading up to the shot and the body part used to shoot (foot, header, etc.).
An xG of 1.0 is a for sure goal, an xG of 0.1 indicates that there would be 1 expected goal if 10 identical shots were taken. To note, the xG of a penalty is 0.79 (odds are heavily in favour of scoring).
Keeping that in mind, the lowest xG recorded that resulted in a goal so far in the 25-26 Premier League season was 0.01. It was a left footed shot from 28-yards by Lucas Paquetá when West Ham played Chelsea on August 22, 2025.
The lowest xG recorded that resulted in a goal so far in the 25-26 Premier League season was 0.01. A wonder strike from Lucas Paquetá.
Some might describe this as a bit of a wonder strike! Said differently, if the same shot was taken 100 times, there would only be one expected goal. Despite the low xG, there was nothing a goalkeeper could do to stop that shot.
For comparison, there haven’t been 100 shots recorded so far in the 25-26 Premier League season with an xG of 0.01. However, there have been 63 shots with an xG of 0.01 and Paquetá’s has been the only goal.
Of those 63 shots, only 10 hit the target and were saved (15.9%), 23 were off target (36.5%) and 29 were blocked (46.0%). This further enforces the incredible strike that Paquetá had and reinforces why there was such a low xG rating for this shot.
At the other end of the spectrum is the highest xG that didn’t result in a goal. After the first 5 match weeks in the Premier League, Erling Haaland holds the title for the highest xG without scoring a goal. It happened when Manchester City played Manchester United on September 14, 2025.
Haaland had a shot in the 55th minute from 4 yards out that hit the woodwork (post). The xG for that shot was 0.93, meaning that you would expect 93 goals if the same shot was taken 100 times.
While that was a bad miss, we’ll give Haaland a break as City won that game and Haaland is currently leading the Premier League with number of goals scored with 6 (in 5 matches).
Premier League Shooting and Scoring: Key Takeaways So Far
Well, that’s it for this article. In this post, we take a deep dive into the shooting and goal scoring data from the first five match weeks (first 50 matches) in the 25-26 English Premier League season.
So far, there have been 119 goals scored (not including own goals). However, the majority of shots are either blocked or miss the target. While the average goal is scored from 11.9 yards out, there are exceptions (such as the strike from Paquetá).
The majority of shots come in the second half of matches (56.7% of all shots). More specifically, the 90+3 minute of stoppage time is the single minute with the most shots recorded so far at 25.
When looking at xG, the Paquetá’s goal had the lowest xG (0.01) out of all goals so far this season and Haaland’s miss against United (xG of 0.93) was the highest xG of any shot without scoring.
What are your thoughts when reading this data? Does anything stand out to you or catch you by surprise? Any predictions for how this data might change over the season as more matches are played? Let us know in the comments!
Stay tuned for future posts and please send us a message if there is a specific topic you would like to see covered. Additionally, if you have some ideas on how to improve these articles, please send them our way too.
As always, thanks for taking the time to read these posts!
JC
All data in this article is from fbref.com so, thanks to them!
One response to “Premier League 25/26: Shot Accuracy, Goal Trends, and xG Insights After 5 Matches”
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