Arsenal’s 1–0 victory over Hull City completed an unusual sequence in their opening ten Premier League matches of 2026/27.
Six of Arsenal’s nine victories have come by exactly one goal. More remarkably, they have not lost a single league match by that margin.
Manchester City have also played six matches decided by one goal, but their record is different: four victories and two defeats. Ipswich Town have split their six narrow decisions evenly, winning three and losing three.
Across each club’s first ten Premier League fixtures of 2026/27, completed by 8 November 2026, Arsenal lead the division for one-goal victories.
Their six narrow wins also account for 17.1% of all Premier League matches decided by one goal during that period. It is a substantial share for one club in a 20-team competition.
Arsenal have made a habit of winning by one goal
FIVDA analysed NBC Sports’ complete 2026/27 Premier League results, counting each club’s victories and defeats by exactly one goal.
Arsenal’s six narrow victories came against Aston Villa, Chelsea, Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, Liverpool and Hull City.
Four finished 1–0, while the other two ended 2–1.
Their victories were also evenly divided between home and away fixtures. Chelsea, Leeds and Hull were beaten at home, while Arsenal travelled to Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool and returned with 1–0 wins.
The pattern is particularly striking when considered alongside their overall results. Arsenal won nine of their opening ten league matches, with six of those nine victories decided by a single goal.
More importantly, those six victories contributed 18 of Arsenal’s 27 points.
That is two-thirds of their entire points total earned from matches settled by the narrowest winning margin.
A one-goal victory does not necessarily mean a team struggled throughout the match. It simply means the final score separated the sides by exactly one goal, whether that was 1–0, 2–1 or another narrow scoreline.
For historical context, FIVDA also examined Arsenal’s defensive statistics after ten Premier League matches in 2025/26. That earlier analysis considered the underlying defensive numbers rather than winning margins alone, although its findings should not be assumed to apply to the current season.
Nevertheless, six such wins without suffering a defeat by the same margin give Arsenal a distinctive record.
Manchester City and Ipswich tell a different story
Manchester City provide the most revealing comparison.
Like Arsenal, City have played six Premier League matches decided by exactly one goal. However, they have won four and lost two.
That gives City a 66.7% winning record in those matches, compared with Arsenal’s 100%.
The difference is not how often the clubs have been involved in one-goal decisions. It is how those decisions have been divided between victories and defeats.
Ipswich Town offer another interesting contrast.
They have also played six one-goal decisions, but their record is perfectly balanced: three wins and three defeats.
That means Ipswich have won 50% of those matches, compared with City’s 66.7% and Arsenal’s 100%.
Three clubs, each involved in six matches decided by the same narrow margin, have therefore emerged with substantially different records.
It is a useful reminder that the number of close scorelines alone does not reveal how a team’s results have unfolded.
Arsenal won six of their opening ten Premier League matches by a single goal without suffering a one-goal defeat. Manchester City won four such matches and lost two, while Fulham lost four of their six narrow decisions.
Fulham have experienced the opposite outcome
Elsewhere in the Premier League, the balance between narrow victories and defeats looks very different.
Fulham have played six matches decided by one goal, winning just two and losing four.
Their 33.3% winning record in those fixtures contrasts sharply with Arsenal’s perfect return from the same number of one-goal decisions.
Aston Villa have recorded three narrow victories and two defeats, giving them a 60% winning record across five such matches.
Coventry City, Hull City and Nottingham Forest have each experienced a less favourable split, with one one-goal victory and three defeats.
Those figures show why looking at narrow defeats alongside narrow victories matters. A team may have been involved in plenty of closely decided matches without collecting many wins from them.
Everton provide a useful qualification to Arsenal’s record. They too have won every match they have played that was decided by one goal, but only two fixtures meet that description.
Arsenal’s six victories from six narrow decisions therefore stand apart in terms of both their winning percentage and the number of matches involved.
One club, a sizeable share of the league’s narrow wins
Across the Premier League’s first 100 matches of 2026/27, 35 finished with a winning margin of exactly one goal.
That means more than a third of the league’s fixtures have been settled by the smallest possible winning margin.
This follows a broader pattern examined in FIVDA’s analysis of why Premier League matches became harder to win comfortably in 2025/26. That full-season study provides historical context for the frequency of narrow results, although it does not explain Arsenal’s individual victories this season.
Of those 35 matches, Arsenal were the winning side in six. Their 17.1% share of the league’s one-goal victories is especially striking given that they represent just one of 20 clubs.
The calculation also helps explain the importance of narrow victories to Arsenal’s opening campaign. Without needing large winning margins, they have collected 18 points from six matches in which the final score was separated by a single goal.
However, the scorelines alone cannot establish why Arsenal have won those matches.
They do not prove superior game management, greater resilience or good fortune. Nor do they establish that the same pattern will continue as the season develops.
A one-goal result tells us how closely the teams finished on the scoreboard, not necessarily how evenly the match was contested.
What makes Arsenal’s start remarkable is the scale of their contribution to the league-wide total.
More than one in every six Premier League matches decided by a single goal so far has ended in an Arsenal victory.
For a club with 27 points from ten matches, those narrow wins have not been a minor detail. They have provided the majority of Arsenal’s points and become one of the defining statistical features of their impressive start.
